According to the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) and the RIVM/Emissions Register, the country is far from meeting its 2030 climate target, which requires a 55% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels. To achieve this, emissions must fall by 7 megatonnes per year for the next six years. However, given the current pace, this goal seems increasingly difficult to reach.

The Netherlands has made considerable strides in its transition towards clean energy, focusing primarily on wind, solar, and green hydrogen production. By 2024, the country had installed 10 GW of wind capacity, with projections to reach 21 GW by 2030. The Dutch government has been particularly ambitious with offshore wind farms, positioning the North Sea as a key hub for sustainable energy generation.

Solar energy has also seen rapid expansion, with 18 GW of installed capacity, making the Netherlands one of the leading countries in Europe in solar energy adoption per capita. The integration of solar panels on rooftops and large-scale solar farms has contributed significantly to decarbonising the power sector.

Additionally, the Dutch government has set ambitious targets for green hydrogen, planning to develop at least 4 GW of hydrogen electrolysis capacity by 2030. This clean fuel is expected to play a crucial role in decarbonising industrial processes and providing long-term energy storage solutions to balance fluctuations in wind and solar power generation.

Despite these advancements, the energy transition alone is not enough to drive the required emission reductions. The country must now address the sectors that are failing to cut their emissions at the necessary rate.

Industry and aviation: The biggest obstacles to transition

While some sectors are decarbonising effectively, others are stalling progress. The industry and aviation sectors remain major contributors to emissions, preventing the Netherlands from achieving more significant reductions.

The industrial sector accounted for 33% of the Netherlands’ total emissions in 2024, making it the largest single contributor. Emissions from this sector increased by 1.5%, largely due to the burning of residual coal gases in steel production. The full reopening of blast furnaces after scheduled maintenance in 2023 further drove emissions higher.

To meet the 2030 climate targets, industrial emissions must decrease by 37%, but current policies and investments remain insufficient to ensure this happens. There is an urgent need to accelerate the adoption of electrification, hydrogen fuel, and carbon capture technologies within Dutch industry.

The aviation sector also recorded an increase in emissions of 4% in 2024, in contrast to land and maritime transport, which showed reductions. The continued reliance on fossil jet fuels and an overall increase in air travel have made aviation one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonise.

Although the Dutch government has proposed tax incentives for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and the development of hydrogen-powered aircraft, progress remains slow. Without stronger regulations or financial penalties for high emissions, the aviation sector could continue to grow unchecked, counteracting efforts made in other sectors.

Can renewables alone sustain the energy transition?

Despite the impressive growth of wind and solar energy, the slow rate of emission reductions across other economic sectors raises serious concerns.

The electricity sector still emitted 22.9 megatonnes of CO₂ in 2024, requiring a 42% cut to meet its 2030 target. Even if these reductions are achieved, emissions from other sectors must also decline drastically.

Experts have outlined three key strategies to accelerate the energy transition:

1. Decarbonising industry: Implementing stricter regulations, expanding green hydrogen production, and scaling up carbon capture technologies.
2. Accelerating electric mobility: Increasing investment in EV infrastructure, phasing out fossil-fuel-powered vehicles, and expanding public transport electrification.
3. Regulating aviation emissions: Introducing higher fuel taxes, incentivising low-carbon aviation technologies, and setting stronger mandates for sustainable aviation fuels.

The Netherlands has demonstrated that renewable energy expansion is a critical component of decarbonisation, but it is not enough on its own. While electricity and mobility have successfully cut emissions, the industry and aviation sectors are erasing much of this progress.

If urgent measures are not taken, the country will fail to meet its 2030 climate commitments. The debate is no longer about whether the Netherlands should move forward with the energy transition—it is about whether it is doing enough across all sectors to ensure success.