Donald Trump’s return to the international political arena comes with a commercial offensive that could reshape the global energy landscape. The implementation of new reciprocal tariffs of 20% on all products from the European Union is raising concerns in the European renewable energy sector over the impact on project costs and supply chains.

The U.S. president claimed that this figure is “half of what Brussels charges them,” in what he called “Liberation Day.” This tariff measure threatens to significantly raise the cost of European renewable energy projects, especially in wind energy, which faces greater vulnerability due to its maturity.

Casper Roerade, Policy Advisor for maritime transport and port logistics at evofenedex, warns in dialogue with Strategic Energy Europe that these tariffs “will seriously damage trade, increasing the cost of new renewable energy installations due to their complex multinational supply chains.” From his perspective, the impact in the U.S. will be even deeper, as these tariffs “will delay the energy transition by a decade.”

The tariff structure is severe: 54% on Chinese goods overall, rising to 104% for solar cells and 79% for battery components. For Southeast Asia, rates hover around 45%, making any alternative to Chinese imports significantly more expensive. According to Roerade, “domestic U.S. green technology is much more expensive” and, given the administration’s focus on fossil fuels and the preference for “drill, baby, drill“, “they will rely on LNG for a long time.”

Renewable supply chains under pressure

The fracturing of global supply networks will have direct effects on Europe, where external technology dependence is structural. Roerade explains that “global demand will cool,” affecting not only prices but also the feasibility of new projects. Additionally, the U.S. decision to ban wind turbines on public lands introduces new pressure by artificially restricting global demand.

From a regional viewpoint, Javier Robledo, a professor and renewable energy specialist, states that “tariffs on renewable technologies in Europe could increase the cost of wind and solar projects, affecting investment and delaying climate goals.” He adds, “If costs rise, some projects may be halted, and the energy transition will become more expensive and slower,” in conversation with Strategic Energy Europe.

Roerade underscores that wind energy is more vulnerable than solar due to its level of maturity. “IRA funding is in doubt; it could have significantly boosted U.S. manufacturing and reduced the cost of products like hydrogen. Removing it from the equation will limit innovation and consolidate dependence on Chinese green technology,” he adds.

A window of opportunity for Europe?

Despite the adverse scenario, some stakeholders see a chance to strengthen European technological autonomy. Robledo notes that if local production is boosted, a window could open to “create jobs and drive innovation in clean technology.”

However, this will require significant public sector intervention. “The sector will likely pressure the EU for support and compensation,” says Robledo, who believes that “if incentives and policies are well managed, the situation could become a growth engine for Europe’s renewable industry.”

Eusebiu-Valentin Stamate, Policy Analyst at Issue Monitoring, adds that “European governments could adjust their incentive regulations to counter the effects of recent U.S. tariffs, especially in renewable energy sectors.” Possible responses include reinforcing existing subsidies, introducing new incentives for clean tech manufacturing, and increasing R&D investments in green hydrogen and energy storage.

The EU’s geopolitical response

Europe is not expected to sit idle. Roerade affirms that “the EU will likely retaliate,” though “not with the same level of self-destructiveness as the U.S. tariffs.” He suggests that the EU should leverage U.S. dependence on digital trade and services, imposing asymmetric measures on sectors such as intellectual property, licensing, and financial services—areas where Europe has more leverage and less industrial exposure.

Stamate believes that the EU could introduce countermeasures, such as restricting duty-free imports in strategic sectors like steel and automotive. “Europe’s unity and strength lie in its Single Market, which remains a powerful shield against external economic pressures,” he says, citing recent remarks by President Ursula von der Leyen.

Tariffs under scrutiny: Is this unfair competition?

Stamate emphasizes that the new tariffs “could be considered unfair trade practices under EU and WTO law” and that they “distort the competitive landscape and create trade imbalances,” threatening the viability of Europe’s clean industries.

While some EU officials, including von der Leyen, recognize the need to address global unfair trade practices, they insist that tariffs should not be the first tool to resolve such issues. “Instead, negotiation and collaboration should guide the resolution of trade imbalances,” notes Stamate.

The European Union is already examining possible legal responses. “The EU has the regulatory tools necessary to challenge these tariffs and protect its domestic industries,” he adds. These include anti-dumping investigations, WTO disputes, and targeted state aid to maintain competitiveness. Additionally, a coordinated response among Member States is being promoted to strengthen the EU’s negotiating position and shield its green industry from protectionist threats.

China’s dominant role

A key issue is China’s hegemony in green technologies. The country dominates the global supply chain for solar cells, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries. Trump’s tariffs not only disrupt bilateral trade but structurally impact the global energy transition by targeting the world’s main supplier hub.

Roerade points out that the only large-scale substitutes are in Southeast Asia, which has also been hit by the new tariffs. As a result, the global market faces a bottleneck that could significantly slow climate progress—not just in the U.S., but across the international ecosystem reliant on Chinese components.

Regulatory relaxation in the EU

Adding to the complexity is a shift in EU internal priorities. Roerade observes that as Europe focuses on reindustrialization and national security rearmament, as well as on “enhancing competitiveness to sustain long-term prosperity“, pressure on the green transition will ease. It won’t disappear, but “the emphasis has shifted, and so the regulatory pressure will decrease and the pace will slow down.”

Stamate agrees. In response to the aggressive U.S. tariff strategy, he argues that “Europe could diversify its clean tech market,” fostering regional alliances within the EU and promoting local, cooperative energy projects. “This could trigger a shift toward more localized and collaborative energy initiatives within Europe,” he concludes.

To conclude, Donald Trump’s tariff policy is not an isolated event, but a turning point in the geopolitics of clean energy. Its impact is already being felt across Europe, which must now respond strategically to safeguard its energy transition, redefine its value chains, and assert itself as an independent player in an increasingly tense global landscape.