Sweden is set to remain one of Europe’s leading net electricity exporters through to 2028, supported by a 15% increase in generation capacity, led by wind, nuclear and solar sources. This is the main finding of the Short-Term Energy Forecast, Winter 2025 published by the Swedish Energy Agency (Energimyndigheten). The projection, covering 2023–2028, shows sustained growth in industrial electricity demand, expanding electrification of transport, and a continued shift away from fossil fuels.

Electricity production is forecast to reach 187 TWh by 2028, up from 163 TWh in 2023. This growth is largely attributable to a 40% expansion in wind power, rising from 34 TWh to 47 TWh, and a 190% surge in solar generation, reaching 9 TWh. Nuclear output will remain steady at 148 TWh, consolidating its role as a base-load source. This robust generation capacity will enable net electricity exports of 39 TWh by 2028, even as domestic consumption increases.

Industrial electrification and hydrogen

The industrial sector is the primary driver of electricity demand growth. Electrification of processes and the roll-out of green hydrogen projects will see industrial demand rise from 44 TWh in 2023 to 56 TWh in 2028. “Drygt hälften omfattar elanvändning till vätgasproduktion” (“more than half of this relates to electricity use for hydrogen production”), the agency notes. The projection only includes projects with both grid connection and environmental permits, but a high-demand scenario anticipates an additional 8 TWh of consumption by 2028.

Fossil fuels decline in industry

Despite this industrial momentum, total fossil fuel use in the sector will fall by 13%, driven by the planned conversion of blast furnaces to electric arc furnaces. This change, especially in the steel industry, will reduce coke and process gas consumption by 3 TWh and boost electricity use. Industrial biofuel use will remain stable at 59 TWh, while fossil fuel use, such as oil and ga,s will decline marginally.

Transport decarbonisation

The electrification of transport also contributes to the reduction in fossil consumption. By 2028, 27% of Sweden’s car fleet is expected to consist of electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles, which significantly lowers the energy consumed per kilometre. Electricity demand in transport is set to double during the period, while total sector energy use will fall by 5 TWh, down to 73 TWh.

Stable demand in buildings and services

Energy consumption in the residential and service sectors stabilises at around 138 TWh. The report highlights the lasting impact of energy efficiency measures taken during the 2022–2023 energy crisis. The mass installation of heat pumps and the replacement of inefficient heating systems have reduced overall demand, even in the face of new construction. District heating (fjärrvärme) will continue to supply about 51 TWh annually, with 80% sourced from biofuels and waste.

Geopolitical and investment risks

The macroeconomic and geopolitical environment poses ongoing risks for energy investment. The war in Ukraine, damage to energy infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, and political uncertainty in the United States and EU contribute to market volatility and regulatory unpredictability. The Agency highlights that “ökade och oförutsägbara handelshinder skulle generellt också kunna leda till svagare investeringsklimat” (“increased and unpredictable trade barriers could generally weaken the investment climate”).

Renewables and support phase-outs

The removal of some subsidies, such as the 60 öre/kWh scheme for small-scale solar producers, has slowed expansion but has not halted it. Photovoltaic output is projected to grow from 3 TWh to 9 TWh, though at a slower pace than previously anticipated. Biomass use—especially in heating and transport—will drop by 13 TWh, affected by the removal of incentives and increased international competition for supply.

Final energy outlook

By the end of the forecast period, Sweden’s total energy supply will reach 513 TWh, reflecting relatively stable but evolving domestic demand. While risks persist, particularly around unconfirmed industrial projects and AI-driven data centre loads, Sweden appears firmly committed to a resilient, low-emission electricity system built to support industrial growth.