Poland is sending a strong signal that its energy transition is gaining momentum. The country aims to double the share of renewables in its power mix by 2030, driven by policy reform, dynamic public auctions and a maturing corporate PPA market.

In just a decade, Poland has reduced its coal dependency from 87% to 57%, as highlighted by Luis López-Polín, Director of Buyer Engagement at LevelTen Energy: “In 2015, renewable share was just 8%, mostly wind. Today, combining wind and solar, it’s up to 26%, and including other clean technologies, the total reaches 30%.”

However, the growth pace has been slower than in other European markets, something the country now seeks to change. Its National Energy and Climate Plan sets an ambitious 56% renewable electricity target by 2030, requiring a near doubling of current capacity in just five years.

Auctions surge and regulation evolves

Poland’s regulatory framework has undergone major revisions. A key shift was the relaxation of the 10H rule, which had previously restricted wind projects by requiring turbines to be placed ten times their height away from residential buildings. This distance has now been eased to 500 metres. “This unlocks an area roughly the size of Belgium for new onshore wind development,” says López-Polín.

Public auctions have also ramped up. “In 2021, 4 GW were awarded. In 2022, the figure dropped to 700 MW, confirming market saturation. But in 2024, we saw a strong rebound with 1.5 GW allocated, including 2.5 GWh to storage systems,” he notes.

The new energy plan also includes the first Polish nuclear plant, expected by 2033, with six more to follow. “This will add carbon-free baseload capacity, helping stabilise the grid,” López-Polín explains.

PPAs gain traction: more volume, more flexibility

LevelTen Energy is observing steady growth in the country’s PPA market. Pieter van der Meulen, Senior Manager of Developer Engagement, reports that “Poland now ranks 8th in Europe for PPA-contracted capacity, with 500 MW in 2024 and a 2 GW total to date.” The number of deals rose 30% year-on-year.

A key differentiator is the coexistence of public auction schemes and corporate PPAs. “Developers can choose between a government CFD, a utility PPA or a corporate PPA. That flexibility is rare in other markets,” says López-Polín.

LevelTen’s RFPs in 2024 show solar as the dominant technology, representing 89% of all offers. But the wind is returning. “In 2025 and 2026, we’ve seen operational wind offers, and in 2027 and 2028, newly built wind projects are entering the mix,” adds van der Meulen.

Longer contracts and virtual structures dominate

Most deals feature 10-year virtual PPAs, although there is a growing trend towards 15-year terms. “Sellers are more willing to offer competitive prices in exchange for long-term revenue certainty,” van der Meulen notes.

In terms of timing, 2026 is the most common contract start date, reflecting typical PPA negotiation and asset development cycles.

Prices fall, value rises: a buyer-friendly market

PPA prices in Poland have declined steadily, according to LevelTen. “Greater competition and lower development costs are driving prices down, especially for solar,” says van der Meulen.

Meanwhile, capture price forecasts are trending upward, making PPAs more attractive for buyers. “It’s a favourable market dynamic: falling PPA prices and increasing long-term value,” he adds.

Grid bottlenecks and investment risks remain

Despite the momentum, there are infrastructure challenges. “The government earmarked €16 billion from the post-pandemic fund for grid upgrades, but progress is slow,” warns López-Polín. Between 2015 and 2021, over 6,000 grid connection requests were denied.

M&A and storage markets heat up

There is a noticeable rise in renewable M&A activity. “We’re seeing more investors diversifying or exiting portfolios, with lower interest rates on the horizon,” says van der Meulen. Projects with grid access, land rights and bankable permits are in high demand.

Battery storage is also gaining traction. “Subsidised standalone storage is attracting early movers, and demand will only increase,” he predicts.

“Supply is accelerating,” concludes López-Polín. “And that 56% renewable target isn’t just ambitious — it’s a strategic opportunity to attract investment and position Poland as a regional energy hub in Central Europe.”