The development of offshore wind power is at a critical turning point. While governments aim to accelerate the energy transition and attract investment, developers face financial and regulatory obstacles that could slow growth. “The main issues for governments to focus on are ensuring that fresh subsidies are offered at realistic levels and that planning processes move swiftly and predictably,” emphasises Peter Lloyd-Williams, Senior Analyst at Westwood Global Energy Group, to Strategic Energy Europe.

Subsidies and Regulatory Reforms: The Role of Governments

One of the key factors determining offshore wind’s growth in 2025 will be the level of financial support governments provide to developers. In key markets such as the UK, Japan, Denmark and the US, authorities have acknowledged that offshore wind power prices have been too low and have taken steps to increase them. “There is still widespread agreement on the need for planning reform, but drastically different opinions on how to achieve that,” notes Lloyd-Williams.

In emerging markets like India and the Philippines, the ability of governments to create attractive regulatory frameworks is critical. “Creating an effective regulatory framework for offshore wind requires serious commitment from government, especially in jurisdictions with limited experience in offshore energy infrastructure,” warns the analyst. While countries such as Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Poland have successfully built up their offshore wind sectors from scratch, Lloyd-Williams stresses that a steady and realistic approach to funding and permitting is what ultimately gets projects built.

Impact of Interest Rates and Commodity Prices

The global macroeconomic environment is another key factor influencing the viability of offshore wind projects in 2025. “Higher interest rates and commodity prices are both serious negatives for offshore wind projects,” Lloyd-Williams points out. Offshore wind developments are typically funded with 60-70% debt, meaning rising interest rates cut directly into developers’ margins.

Regarding construction costs, turbines are the most expensive component of an offshore wind farm, with steel as their primary input. “Higher steel prices are a clear negative for offshore wind projects. While developers can theoretically still finance projects in the face of rising costs, the reduction in margins and the increased risk alter the overall value proposition,” explains the analyst.

Governments could offset these effects with greater financial support, but elevated market volatility remains a challenge for investors.

The Offshore Floating Wind Dilemma

While there is optimism around floating offshore wind, its supply chain still faces significant challenges before reaching commercial scale. “Floating offshore wind continues to face its own chicken-and-egg situation: developers are reluctant to commit to projects while construction costs remain high, while the supply chain has limited scope to offer cost reductions without large-scale orders,” explains Lloyd-Williams.

The sector is gradually evolving, and 1.6 GW of floating capacity is expected to reach Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2026. However, large-scale consolidation is not expected until the 2030s. “Significant floating wind capacity is not expected to start coming online until the early 2030s, with Westwood projecting 14.6 GW in the first three years of the decade,” Lloyd-Williams adds.

Oil Majors’ Retreat from Offshore Wind and Its Impact on Competition

One of the most significant shifts in the offshore wind sector is the withdrawal of major oil and gas companies. “Offshore wind projects have different expenditure and return profiles compared to traditional oil and gas developments, as well as responding to different market drivers, making them somewhat awkward within an oil & gas company’s portfolio,” Lloyd-Williams notes.

As the oil and gas sector has strengthened, and offshore wind has faced financial headwinds, investor pressure has led many oil majors to rethink their approach. “This leaves traditional renewables developers as the largest corporate interests actively looking at new offshore investments,” he observes.

Expectations for 2025: Offshore Wind Auctions on the Horizon

The offshore wind market is expected to be highly active in 2025, with multiple auctions and lease rounds underway. Up to 100 GW of capacity could be awarded over the next two years, although this represents an optimistic scenario. “The level of enthusiasm for these auctions and the amount of support governments need to provide to secure investment will be key indicators of market appetite,” says Lloyd-Williams.

However, recent tender cancellations signal that developer interest remains uncertain. “Just last week, Denmark, one of the core offshore wind markets, had to reset its tender process due to a lack of bidder interest,” Lloyd-Williams highlights.

The offshore wind sector in 2025 faces a complex landscape, with financing, regulatory, and infrastructure cost challenges. While the sector continues to expand, economic and political uncertainty remains a decisive factor in the pace and scale of new projects.

Success in the offshore wind industry will depend on governments’ ability to offer realistic subsidies, streamline permitting processes, and create regulatory stability, while developers must find ways to navigate cost volatility and shifting financing conditions.

In an environment where investment appetite is uncertain, government support and risk mitigation will be crucial for offshore wind to continue its global expansion in the coming years.