The updated PNIEC 2023-2030 outlines more ambitious goals to drive Spain’s energy transition. Industry experts agree that the main challenge posed by this document is achieving its objectives within the remaining timeframe before the decade’s end.

By 2030, 81% of electricity generation is expected to come from renewable sources, with 76 GW of solar photovoltaic and 62 GW of wind capacity. Additionally, targets include 22.5 GW of energy storage and 12 GW of green hydrogen production.

These objectives aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 32% and improve energy efficiency by 43%, solidifying Spain’s path toward climate neutrality by 2050.

“At first glance, these numbers seem high but not impossible when compared to the pace at which renewable capacity has been installed in recent years,” says José Luis Bernal Albendín, General Director of the Institute of Energy Technology and Water Resources (ITERH).

However, in conversation with Energía Estratégica España, Bernal points out that the development pace of wind projects “is not as promising.”

He highlights that installing over 30 GW of wind capacity in seven years will require overcoming administrative and investment barriers and, most critically, social resistance in some areas, such as Galicia, where movements have stalled over 2 GW of capacity.

“The new PNIEC has the right intentions, but execution is a different story,” Bernal emphasizes, adding two priorities to the challenges: the development of energy storage and the deployment of electric vehicles.

Currently, there are around 10 GW of lithium-ion batteries with grid access and connection requests. However, progress is slower than the plan’s optimistic forecast of 12 GW.

“The cost of batteries remains high, and while there are promising advances, we’re not seeing the revolution some predicted a few years ago,” says Bernal.

He also stresses the importance of integrating electric vehicles. The PNIEC sets a goal of 5.5 million units by 2030, “which sounds as ambitious as saying Spain will win five World Cups in the next decade,” the advisor remarks.

Currently, there are around 500,000 electric vehicles in circulation, with annual sales barely reaching 150,000 units, making it challenging to envision achieving the PNIEC targets within six years.

“For this to work, the government must seriously rethink its strategy for incentives, charging infrastructure, and vehicle taxation,” Bernal suggests.

Transport electrification will be critical to accommodate the renewable energy required during this period.

Balancing electricity demand and renewable generation remains one of the plan’s most significant challenges.

The good news is that electricity demand continues to grow month by month, albeit at a slower pace than generation, for now.

The PNIEC projects a 34% increase in electricity demand by 2030, driven primarily by transport electrification and renewable hydrogen production.

“This is the classic chicken-and-egg dilemma: we need more clean electricity, but to generate it, the system must be prepared to support the higher demand,” Bernal explains.

In this context, he concludes that power grids will play a key role, requiring a smarter network capable of managing energy flows more efficiently.

Finally, Bernal questions: “Grid digitalization, the development of electricity markets, and strengthening interconnections with other European countries are crucial aspects that must be accelerated if we want to meet the ambitious PNIEC targets. But of course, all this requires investment, and the question is whether we can mobilize the necessary funds in time.”