In an article published by the Federal Network Agency of Germany, the government addressed public concerns about the effects of the Dunkelflaute, or “dark lull”. This phenomenon, characterised by the absence of wind and sunlight, leads to a sharp drop in renewable energy generation, especially during winter months.

However, the report stressed that even under these adverse conditions, the country’s electricity supply remained stable, with no blackouts or critical interruptions. This reassurance was backed by a detailed analysis from Timera Energy, which underscored the crucial role of flexible energy assets during such periods.

“Germany’s electricity system is prepared to handle these events, thanks to its resilience and cooperation with the European market,” the Federal Network Agency stated in its report.

Why were there no blackouts?

According to the report, the key lies in the design of the electricity system. Germany is part of an interconnected European electricity market that allows the country to import electricity from regions where costs are lower or where surplus supply is available. During the Dunkelflaute, imports accounted for approximately 6% of the country’s total consumption, while the rest was covered by domestic production, primarily from gas plants and other backup sources.

The agency emphasised that these imports are not indicative of structural shortages but rather an economic strategy: “In many cases, it is cheaper to import electricity than to generate it locally.”

Price impacts and market flexibility

Reports from the Federal Network Agency and Timera Energy agree that Dunkelflaute events temporarily increased wholesale electricity prices. For instance, in November 2024, base load prices in Germany exceeded €145/MWh, while in December, they peaked at €175/MWh.

Chart 1: Price dynamics in Germany during 2024

Source: Timera Energy, ENTSOE, Spectron

Timera Energy also highlighted how these conditions benefited flexible energy assets, such as battery energy storage systems (BESS) and gas plants. During the November event, short-duration storage assets leveraged intraday price spreads to generate significant arbitrage margins.

“Flexible assets are essential for balancing supply and demand in a renewable energy system,” Timera noted, emphasising the incremental value captured by gas plants and BESS during these events.

Conversely, the impact on residential consumers was minimal. Most household tariffs are shielded from volatility through fixed-rate agreements with suppliers. The agency explained that although wholesale prices soared to €590/MWh during the January 20 event, residential contracts did not reflect these extreme fluctuations.

“Price stability for end consumers is a priority,” the report asserted, highlighting that this buffer mechanism protects households and small businesses from market volatility spikes.

Diversification and backup: the keys to success

The January 2025 Dunkelflaute was the third such event recorded this winter, underscoring the importance of a diversified and flexible energy system. According to the report, gas plants played a crucial role, stepping in to compensate for low renewable output. Additionally, Germany continues to invest in clean technologies while acknowledging that fossil fuels still play a complementary role during the energy transition.

“The use of natural gas and other backup sources is a temporary measure until we can meet our energy needs exclusively through renewables,” the Federal Network Agency noted, referring to the ongoing need for grid and storage expansion.

Germany’s economic and environmental context

The article also addresses the cost of electricity in Germany, which remains one of the highest in Europe, at 37% above the EU average. This is primarily due to taxes, grid fees, and levies associated with the energy transition. Nonetheless, authorities defend these investments as essential for meeting Paris Agreement climate goals and protecting the environment.

“Failing to invest in renewables would incur far greater costs in terms of climate and economic impact over the long term,” the report stated.

Lessons learned and future outlook

Germany’s recent experience with the Dunkelflaute highlights the importance of investments in energy flexibility. The Federal Network Agency report emphasised that such events are not only challenges but also opportunities to test and refine new technologies. Key priorities for the future include:

• Expanding energy storage systems, both short- and long-duration.
• Modernising and expanding grid infrastructure to facilitate the efficient transport of renewable energy.
• Increasing international cooperation to optimise resources within the European electricity market.

“Our goal is a fully renewable and carbon-free energy economy,” the Federal Network Agency concluded, noting that the transition is underway, though significant challenges remain.