The Spanish government’s intention to make the tax on extraordinary profits from energy companies permanent has introduced greater instability in the renewable energy sector.

This measure, which started in 2023 and has raised more than 2 million euros in the two years of its implementation, was designed to alleviate energy costs for consumers and finance public policies.

Companies like Repsol have confirmed the threat of moving their hydrogen investments to other countries. In this case, the CEO of the company announced their bet on Portugal with the establishment of a hydrogen plant in Sines. According to the company, the decision responds to “a more predictable fiscal environment.”

In this regard, several analysts in the renewable energy sector have interpreted such actions as “the perfect excuse” to delay projects that require a more developed market.

Marcos Rupérez, an advisor specializing in this technology, states that current initiatives “in general, today are not profitable anywhere and are very dependent on Europe’s legal stability.”

In an interview with Energía Estratégica España, he explains that the profitability of these projects largely depends on external factors like the price of gas, which, although currently high, Rupérez anticipates “a reduction in the next five to ten years.”

This scenario will further challenge hydrogen’s competitiveness, which currently has an estimated production cost in the best projects of around €4.5 per kilogram, a figure that limits its adoption without subsidies or state intervention.

These statements are the basis for speculations suggesting that the lack of profitability and regulatory risk may cause companies to adopt a wait-and-see stance regarding investment in hydrogen.

According to Rupérez, legal insecurity “is a matter of the timelines in which the European Commission is developing the new regulations,” meaning projects will not move forward until companies perceive a favorable environment that guarantees their viability.

“If today there was a clear commitment to mandatory aviation fuel with penalties… there would be a market for hydrogen,” emphasizes the analyst.

Thus, he concludes, “until something is super clear, delaying projects a bit, certain excuses work well for them.”