In the first nine months of 2024, Spain recorded an accumulated energy demand of 185,599 GWh, representing a 0.9% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. After adjusting for labor-related effects and temperatures, the increase is 1.5%, according to data from Red Eléctrica España.

This behavior reflects an upward trend in electricity demand, but it raises questions about whether it will be enough to meet the ambitious goals set in the National Energy and Climate Integrated Plan (PNIEC) 2023-2030.

The plan states that electricity demand should increase by 35% compared to 2019 levels, when consumption reached 264 TWh. This implies that by 2030, the country would need a consumption of 353 TWh, an increase of 168 TWh in just six years.

However, industry experts are skeptical about the possibility of achieving this target.

“We’re celebrating a 3% growth in consumption for September 2024 compared to the same month in 2023. But by September 2030, we should have increased that consumption by 50%. Honestly, I think it’s impossible,” says Carlos Martín Graña.

In an interview with Energía Estratégica España, the Chief Operations Officer at ENERJOIN indicates that, according to their estimates, reaching a consumption of 280 TWh by 2030 would already be a “resounding success,” although this would still fall short of the PNIEC target.

“Doubling consumption in six years is like expecting what we haven’t done in the four years since COVID to happen in the next five. It’s a titanic challenge,” says the consultant.

Since this year, the electrification trend has started to register positive figures after 2020.

Electricity demand in Europe has shown sustained growth, in contrast to the drop in gas demand since August 2022, which stands at 18%.

“We might think that a small part of that gas loss is because industries have electrified some processes,” Graña suggests, considering this as a reflection of increased industrial activity, demonstrated by economic growth indices in the country, aligning with the decarbonization trend.

He identifies two main reasons behind the increase in energy consumption: “One political and one economic. The economic reason, logically, is everything that has happened with gas prices… Industry had gotten used to cheap, continuous, and low-risk gas,” but recent events, such as the war in Ukraine and the situation with Israel, have disrupted this reality.

Politically, the messages are also clear: “Don’t consume gas,” along with incentives that promote electrification.

However, there are significant challenges that could hinder demand growth.

The transition to electric vehicles, which was expected to be a key driver for increased consumption, still faces economic and technical barriers.

“An electric car is still noticeably more expensive than a combustion vehicle, and the charging infrastructure network is still far from adequate for the massive growth of these vehicles,” Graña points out.

On the other hand, the green hydrogen industry, which is also considered a key source of future demand, faces profitability issues due to competition from natural gas, whose price remains more competitive.

Despite the positive short-term outlook, doubts persist about whether Spain will be able to increase its electricity demand enough to meet the ambitious goals of the PNIEC, and this growth will be essential for the advancement of renewables.

“Any increase in electricity consumption is key to integrating more renewables,” says the ENERJOIN representative, adding that without this increase, “we can forget about adding more renewables, because they won’t fit into the grid.”

In this regard, he concludes that the transition to a cheaper renewable mix must be accompanied by regulation that allows turning this “green economy” into an affordable final bill, in order to continue attracting new industry to the territory.