According to TenneT’s latest 2025 Security of Supply Monitor, while supply security remains within acceptable limits until that year, the situation is projected to worsen rapidly thereafter. The deterioration is mainly attributed to a decline in conventional controllable capacity and a sharp surge in electricity demand driven by widespread electrification.

“Until 2030, the security of supply is under control, but beyond that, the risks increase rapidly,” states Maarten Abbenhuis, Chief Operating Officer at TenneT. This scenario is reflected in the LOLE, which is forecast to rise from 1.1 hours in 2030 to 12.6 hours in 2033 and 9.2 hours in 2035, well above the system reliability standard of four hours annually set for the Dutch market.

This level of risk represents a substantial challenge for the energy transition, which aims to simultaneously phase out fossil fuels and accommodate rising demand from sectors such as electric transport, heating, and industry.

The monitor also highlights that, despite substantial investments in renewable energy generation, these sources cannot yet fully compensate for the decreasing availability of dispatchable capacity in the Netherlands and neighbouring countries.

“Renewable sources do not always produce power when and where it is needed. This makes the system more complex and vulnerable to imbalances,” Abbenhuis warns. He stresses that ensuring grid stability in this new energy landscape requires comprehensive planning and investment.

A system increasingly dependent on flexibility and storage

In response to these challenges, TenneT has substantially revised its projections for battery storage capacity. The Netherlands is now expected to achieve 6.7 gigawatts of battery capacity by 2030, compared to the 4.9 gigawatts estimated in the 2024 edition of the monitor. This figure is set to grow further to 11.4 gigawatts by 2033 and 15.8 gigawatts by 2035, reflecting both the rapid decline in battery technology costs and the introduction of more flexible grid connection conditions that incentivise storage deployment.

Additionally, the volume of energy storage is expected to grow significantly. For 2033, TenneT forecasts 48 gigawatt-hours of storage capacity, nearly doubling the previous estimate of 26 GWh.

This growth is largely driven by the deployment of Long Duration Energy Storage (LDES) technologies, which include pumped hydro storage, compressed air energy storage, liquid air storage, and advanced flow batteries. These systems are capable of providing sustained energy during multi-day periods of low renewable generation, ensuring greater resilience against prolonged shortages.

The report also introduces new projections for intra-day and multi-day storage, which will play a key role in managing volatility caused by weather-dependent renewables. By 2035, TenneT expects significant adoption of these technologies, with multi-day storage capacity stabilising at 26.9 GWh and intra-day LDES capacity growing to 24 GWh.

Urgent measures recommended by TenneT

Given the projected supply challenges, TenneT has called on the Ministry of Climate and Green Growth to adopt immediate and decisive measures. Key recommendations outlined in the report include:

• Promoting new investments in controllable capacity, to prevent the premature closure of critical existing assets and ensure sufficient dispatchable resources remain available.

• Enhancing demand-side response capabilities by exploring the full potential of industrial and residential demand flexibility to provide system balancing services during periods of scarcity.

• Encouraging the development of medium- and long-term energy storage solutions through dedicated policy instruments, market incentives, and regulatory reforms that facilitate the deployment of LDES technologies.

“This requires targeted decisions on demand response, storage, and, if absolutely necessary and under strict conditions, the implementation of capacity mechanisms,” Abbenhuis emphasises. He also points out that relying solely on market forces without supportive policies will not be sufficient to guarantee supply security in the years ahead.

The report underscores the critical role of cross-border interconnectors in maintaining system adequacy, particularly those linking the Netherlands to the United Kingdom and Norway. These interconnections are essential for mitigating localised supply shortages and ensuring the stability of the wider European electricity system.

Finally, TenneT raises concerns over the increasing demand for electricity driven by artificial intelligence and the rapid expansion of data centres. According to the monitor, the energy consumption forecasts for data centres are now significantly higher than previously estimated, posing an additional challenge for system planners.

This evolving landscape will require continuous reassessment of demand projections and the implementation of adaptive strategies to maintain system balance.