In the fourth week of August, the weekly prices of most of the main European electricity markets were below €85/MWh. During the week, the markets displayed mixed performance. The British and French markets registered daily prices below €20/MWh, while in Germany and Italy they exceeded €100/MWh. Demand grew, photovoltaic production decreased, and wind energy increased, in a context where TTF gas showed a downward trend, although on average it increased compared to the previous week, CO2 stable, and Brent closed slightly higher.
During the week of August 25, solar photovoltaic production decreased in the main European electricity markets compared to the previous week. The French and German markets posted the largest declines, 16% and 10%, respectively, marking their second consecutive week of declines. The Italian and Spanish markets recorded the smallest declines, 3.5% and 4.5%, respectively, and accumulated three weeks of declines. Meanwhile, the Portuguese market reduced its production by 9.9%, after having recorded increases the previous week.
For the week of September 1, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting ‘s solar production forecasts indicate that solar photovoltaic generation will increase in the Spanish market and decrease in the German and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting with data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting with data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.In the fourth week of August, wind power production increased in most of the major European electricity markets compared to the previous week. France recorded the largest increase, 47%. The Iberian Peninsula saw increases of 8.0% in Spain and 32% in Portugal, extending the upward trend for the second and third consecutive weeks, respectively. In contrast, the German and Italian markets reduced their generation using this technology. The German market recorded the largest drop, 20%, while the Italian market cut its production by 9.5%.
During the week, the French market reached its third-highest daily wind production for a month of August on Friday the 29th, when it generated 218 GWh.
For the first week of September, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting ‘s wind energy production forecasts , wind power generation will increase in the German, Spanish, and French markets. However, production using this technology is expected to decrease in the Portuguese and Italian markets.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting with data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE and TERNA.Electrical demand
In the last week of August, electricity demand increased in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Italian market registered the largest increase, 6.3%, followed by 3.2% in the French market and 2.1% in the German market. The Spanish market showed the smallest increase, 0.7%, while demand grew 0.9% in Portugal and 1.5% in Belgium. The Italian market recorded its second consecutive week of increases, and the Belgian market maintained its upward trend for the fifth consecutive week. However, demand in the British market fell for the second consecutive week, with a 7.0% decline, fueled by the Summer Bank Holiday in Great Britain on August 25.
Average temperatures varied widely across the markets analyzed. Spain, Great Britain, Belgium, and Germany recorded increases ranging from 0.1°C in Spain to 1.3°C in Germany. In contrast, France, Portugal, and Italy recorded decreases ranging from 0.2°C in France to 0.7°C in Italy.
For the first week of September, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting ‘s demand forecasts point to a decrease in demand in the Belgian, Spanish, and French markets, while the German, British, Italian, and Portuguese markets will register increases.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting with data from ENTSO-E, RTE, REN, REE, TERNA, National Grid and ELIA.European electricity markets
In the fourth week of August, prices in the main European electricity markets exhibited mixed performance compared to the previous week. The Nordic countries’ Nord Pool market saw the largest percentage increase in the weekly average price, at 58%. The Italian IPEX market and the EPEX SPOT market in the Netherlands and Germany also recorded price increases, of 3.6%, 4.3%, and 12%, respectively. In contrast, the United Kingdom’s N2EX market recorded the largest drop, at 15%. In the rest of the markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting , prices fell between 3.0% in the Belgian EPEX SPOT market and 5.0% in the French EPEX SPOT market.
During the week of August 25, weekly averages were below €85/MWh in most European electricity markets. The exceptions were the German and Italian markets, whose averages were €90.19/MWh and €109.82/MWh, respectively. The French market recorded the lowest weekly average, at €55.56/MWh. In the rest of the markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting , prices ranged from €65.37/MWh in the Spanish MIBEL market to €82.77/MWh in the Dutch market.
Regarding daily prices, on Sunday, August 31, the British market reached the lowest weekly average among the markets analyzed, at €16.57/MWh. This price was the lowest in the British market since May 26. On August 31, the French market also recorded a price below €20/MWh, at exactly €18.88/MWh. Furthermore, in the fourth week of August, the German and Italian markets recorded daily prices above €100/MWh. On August 28, the Italian market reached the highest daily average of the week, at €122.21/MWh. On that day, the Nordic market recorded its highest price since March 14, at €98.47/MWh.
During the week of August 25, increased wind energy production in the Iberian Peninsula and France contributed to lower prices in the Spanish, French, and Portuguese markets. Falling demand in the British market contributed to the price decline in this market. However, rising weekly gas and CO2 emission allowance prices , as well as increased demand, led to higher prices in other markets. Wind and solar production also fell in the German and Italian markets.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting ‘s price forecasts indicate that, in the first week of September, prices will fall in most European electricity markets, influenced by the increase in wind energy production and the decline in demand in some markets. Furthermore, solar energy production will increase in Spain.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from OMIE, EPEX SPOT, Nord Pool and GME.Brent, fuels and CO 2
Brent oil futures for the Front-Month on the ICE market reached their weekly high of $68.80/bbl on Monday, August 25. After a 2.3% drop compared to the previous day, on Tuesday, August 26, these futures registered their weekly low of $67.22/bbl. On August 27, prices rose again and remained above $68/bbl for the remainder of the fourth week of August. On Friday, the closing price was $68.12/bbl. According to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting , this price was 0.6% higher than that of the previous Friday.
The developments in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine exerted an upward influence on Brent oil futures prices in the fourth week of August. However, increased OPEC+ production and expectations of lower demand limited price growth. In the first week of September, price developments will be influenced by expectations for the next OPEC+ meeting, which will be held at the end of the week.
Regarding TTF gas futures on the ICE market for the Front-Month, they reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €33.77/MWh on Monday, August 25. Prices subsequently fell. As a result, on Thursday, August 28, these futures registered their weekly minimum settlement price of €31.56/MWh. On Friday, August 29, the settlement price was slightly higher, at €31.62/MWh. According to data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting , this price was 5.8% lower than that of the previous Friday. However, even with the price declines during the week, the weekly average of settlement prices was 1.1% higher than that of the previous week.
In the fourth week of August, gas flows from Norway were reduced due to maintenance work. Despite this, European reserve levels continued to rise due to low gas consumption. The availability of liquefied natural gas, fueled by weak demand in Asia, also contributed to the price decline. Furthermore, the supply of Russian liquefied natural gas to China could also reduce competition for global liquefied natural gas supplies.
Regarding the settlement prices of CO2 emission rights futures on the EEX market for the December 2025 reference contract, they remained above €72/t for almost the entire fourth week of August. However, on Thursday, August 28, they registered their weekly minimum settlement price of €71.74/t. However, after a 1.7% increase compared to the previous day, on Friday, August 29, these futures reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €72.97/t. According to the data analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting , this price was 0.6% higher than that of the previous Friday.
Source: Prepared by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting using data from ICE and EEX.
