Spain reaches a turning point in its energy market, where the closing window for solar PPAs coincides with a regulatory attempt to restore industrial competitiveness. The combination of record-low captured prices, an oversupply of projects, and shifts in demand is reshaping the rules for large energy consumers.
“The window for stand-alone solar PPAs has closed,” said the founder and consultant at ASB Renewables Consulting, Álvaro de Simón, describing a scenario in which long-term agreements are losing viability from the seller’s perspective.
De Simón noted that captured solar prices fell below €15/MWh in March, while the wholesale market remains under €50/MWh, creating an environment where locking in long-term prices implies increasing risk.
“When companies see their exposure to solar price volatility, committing to a PPA at €30/MWh does not guarantee coverage against pool price risk,” the consultant explained, highlighting the declining attractiveness of such contracts.
“Captured price expectations appear set to fall below €30/MWh for at least the next two years,” he added.
This leads to a clear conclusion for the market: “The window is closed from the seller’s perspective. It is now very difficult to close PPAs at reasonable prices,” De Simón emphasised in remarks to Energía Estratégica.
The trend is unfolding in a context of supply saturation, with more than 40 GW of projects competing for an estimated 30 GW of demand, further pressuring prices and reducing deal-making opportunities.
At the same time, industry players are adjusting their contracting strategies amid uncertainty, shortening agreement horizons. “Fewer and fewer companies are willing to commit beyond five years,” he said, reflecting limited visibility over future consumption.
“Ideally, they prefer to renegotiate on a yearly basis,” he added, pointing to a shift toward more dynamic contractual schemes. In parallel, the market is moving toward more complex and manageable structures.
He also stressed a transition toward hybrid profiles: solar combined with wind or solar paired with battery storage, anticipating configurations that reduce exposure to pure solar generation profiles.
“Highly electro-intensive sectors, such as aluminium, whose commodity prices are highly volatile, often have the least hedging. Paradoxically, those most affected tend to have less coverage because they want greater flexibility to negotiate terms. Higher volatility means greater exposure to prices and less hedging,” the consultant noted.
Energy accounts for between 30% and 40% of costs for these companies, which heavily influences their hedging decisions, according to De Simón.
In particular, large consumers have faced grid charges ranging from €20 to €30/MWh in high voltage, limiting the benefit of low wholesale prices.
“Despite the low price environment, large consumers have faced a significant penalty,” he stressed, especially following increases implemented since April last year.
RDL 7/2026: regulatory relief and expanded self-consumption
Royal Decree-Law 7/2026, already ratified, introduces measures aimed at easing these imbalances and accelerating electrification. Among them, the 80% reduction in electricity grid charges for electro-intensive industry stands out—a long-standing demand from the sector.
This measure directly addresses one of the main cost burdens faced by large consumers, partially correcting the gap between wholesale prices and final electricity bills.
“Rather than being a transformative lever, it removes a major barrier that was hindering competitiveness,” De Simón explained.
This relief is complemented by other tools, such as the acceleration of Energy Savings Certificates and policies to boost industrial electrification, creating a more favourable framework for large consumers.
One of the most significant structural changes is the expansion of self-consumption. The decree extends the allowable distance to 5 kilometres, enabling new energy configurations for industry.
“This will allow industrial parks, logistics centres and agro-industrial facilities to connect to installations they previously could not access,” he said, broadening the scope of distributed generation models.
In this new context, the optimal scheme is becoming clearer: “The model that industry considers most efficient is solar self-consumption combined with storage,” the executive stated.
At the grid level, the decree also introduces greater transparency and mechanisms to penalise speculation in access points, favouring more advanced projects.
“Many industrial players have contracts with clauses that no longer match their operational profile. The opportunity lies not only in signing new agreements but also in reviewing existing ones,” De Simón warned, identifying a critical optimisation space.
Even so, the adoption of new tools is not immediate. According to the expert, the industrial sector still lags in integrating flexibility markets and ancillary services into its operations. This reflects a gap between available technological solutions and their practical implementation, where greater clarity is still needed regarding business models and the value these solutions can deliver.
