Last week, the French government announced a reform affecting photovoltaic installations on rooftops and parking canopies of less than 500 kWp (S21 segment). This decision, along with a drastic reduction in subsidies and solar electricity purchase tariffs (95 €/MWh), has generated uncertainty in the sector.

For Arnaud Raymond, this measure is a severe blow to the solar industry, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises. “The reduction in tariffs and subsidies makes the profitability of many companies in the sector unviable,” explains Raymond, stressing that this measure endangers numerous ongoing projects.

Impact on Competitiveness and Economic Viability of the Sector

One of the most concerning effects of the moratorium is the financial uncertainty it imposes on companies that have already invested in solar projects, whose business models “suddenly become unviable.”

According to the specialist, more than 80% of projects between 100-500 kWp are linked to the agricultural sector, generating nearly 800 million euros annually in additional revenue. The drastic reduction in this revenue threatens the profitability of many agricultural operations, weakening not only the solar sector but also a fundamental part of the rural economy.

“Regulatory uncertainty is paralyzing new projects and discouraging investments,” says Raymond. The reduction of the feed-in tariff to 40 €/MWh and the decrease in investment aid force the market to focus on self-consumption, making it difficult for small installers to sustain their business models. For companies operating in the 100-500 kWp range, the tariff reduction significantly decreases the competitiveness of solar electricity sales.

Meanwhile, the Renewable Energy Union (SER) and ENERPLAN have warned that this sudden policy change could devastate the solar industry, comparing the situation to the 2010 moratorium that resulted in the loss of 20,000 jobs. “These kinds of decisions send contradictory signals to investors and weaken confidence in the sector,” highlights Daniel Bour, president of ENERPLAN.

Inconsistencies in the Government’s Energy Strategy

The moratorium’s impact is not limited to solar companies. According to industry experts, it also affects France’s ability to meet its climate commitments and ensure its energy independence.

At the recent Artificial Intelligence Summit in Paris, the French president promoted the country’s leadership in decarbonized energy to attract data centers and servers, which could consume up to 170 TWh more electricity by 2027. However, experts argue that restricting the development of the solar sector contradicts this vision.

“The government seems to treat solar energy as a mere adjustment variable in energy policy,” criticizes Jules Nyssen, president of SER. In a context where electricity demand is growing exponentially, limiting the development of the solar sector represents a strategic risk for the country.

“These changes send a negative signal to investors. Retroactive measures and the lack of a long-term vision weaken confidence among businesses and financial players. The solar industry needs stability to attract capital. This ‘stop-and-go’ policy generates uncertainty and discourages investors. Although the demand for decarbonized electricity is increasing, these decisions send mixed signals and slow down the development of solar energy,” emphasizes Raymond.

Recommendations to Stabilize the Regulatory Framework and Ensure a Long-Term Vision

In response to this scenario, the specialist stresses the need for a clear and predictable regulatory framework to restore confidence in the photovoltaic sector and ensure long-term investments.

“A key solution would be to maintain stable purchase tariffs until a well-designed transition mechanism is implemented. Frequent and abrupt modifications make business planning difficult,” explains Raymond.

“The government should align its energy planning with real needs. The growing demand for electricity, especially with the rise of AI and data centers, requires a long-term strategy that leverages solar energy instead of restricting it,” he adds.

Additionally, he suggests that applying a reduced VAT rate of 5.5% on residential solar installations could support such projects. “Announcing incentives without implementing them quickly only creates confusion and slows adoption,” he states.

In this context, SER and ENERPLAN have urged the government to maintain the current tariff scheme for the S21 segment until a new support mechanism is established. The lack of clarity in regulatory transitions could have devastating consequences for the sector.

A Blow to the Multi-Year Energy Program (PPE)

Beyond the immediate impact on the sector, the moratorium is part of a downward revision of the Multi-Year Energy Program (PPE). Originally, the plan aimed to reach 100 GW of installed solar capacity by 2035, but now the target has been reduced to just 65 GW, with an annual goal of only 5 GW.

For Arnaud Raymond, this lack of ambition in energy planning is alarming and represents a significant setback in the energy transition.

“This reduction jeopardizes France’s ability to meet its climate commitments and ensure its energy sovereignty. The expansion of data centers and industries will require 170 TWh more electricity by 2027. Restricting solar energy—one of the fastest sources to deploy—is a strategic mistake,” warns Raymond.