The recent victory of Donald Trump in this year’s U.S. presidential election, securing 295 electoral votes compared to Kamala Harris’s 226, brings uncertainty for the renewable energy sector in Europe. Despite the consolidation of green policies during the previous Democratic administration, the return of the former president to power could mean a drastic change in the dynamics of energy cooperation, directly affecting the clean energy industry in Europe.

Fuente: AP News.

Protectionism and domestic production at the focus of the U.S.

Manuel Parra Palacios, analyst-librarian in scientific and technical fields in Repsol.

Manuel Parra Palacios, analyst-documentalist in scientific and technical areas at Repsol, warns Energía Estratégica España about the priorities of the Trump administration, which has traditionally been an ally of fossil fuel industries. “Trump has been an ally of industries with the largest carbon footprint, which are very important in the states where he has gained majority,” says Palacios, who emphasizes that these policies could lead to a slowdown in the energy transition in the U.S.

Although he acknowledges that “investments from the Democratic IRA have also brought notable advantages,” the analyst highlights that the Trump administration will likely continue to support clean technologies only to the extent that they promote U.S. technological independence, especially in the face of Chinese competition.

On the other hand, Borja Pérez Planells, founder of the Solar Energy Academy and Solar & Storage Product & Applications Engineer at Power Electronics, adds a complementary perspective on Trump’s protectionism and its possible effects. In his view, although Trump is not a supporter of renewables, his policy focused on reducing dependence on imports and strengthening domestic production could “play in favor of renewable energy in certain aspects.”

Borja Pérez Planells, Founder of the Solar Energy Academy and Solar & Storage Product & Applications Engineer at Power Electronics.

Pérez Planells reminds us that, despite his critical stance, the current context in the U.S. has launched incentives aimed at local manufacturing of components such as solar panels, inverters, and batteries.

The possible setback in international commitments

Trump’s return also raises concerns for the global sustainability agenda, especially regarding the commitments under the Paris Agreement. Under his previous administration, the U.S. withdrew from the climate pact, which had a significant symbolic impact.

Now, Parra Palacios comments that, although Europe’s commitment to the Paris Agreement represents “only about 6 to 8% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,” the lack of alignment between Europe and the U.S. could reduce the pressure on other economies to adopt similar measures. “Europe’s commitment doesn’t succeed in dragging the rest of the world along,” says Parra Palacios, who believes this situation will become evident at the upcoming COP29.

The European Challenge: Preserving Competitiveness in Clean Energy

From a European perspective, Trump’s return could mean increasing competition in the technological race, especially in sectors such as offshore wind and solar power generation. The U.S. tariff barriers against clean energy products from China, notes Parra Palacios, “will involve greater support for U.S. national technology, but without leveraging the best available innovations, most of which are in China.” This situation presents a dilemma for Europe, which may see the adoption of certain technologies limited in favor of a more protected but less advanced industry.

In fact, the European context also faces internal challenges. Despite its commitment to clean energy, some companies and industries in Europe are showing less willingness to accelerate the energy transition.

A recent report by Mario Draghi warned of the need to strengthen the competitiveness of Europe’s green industry, which could lose ground to players like China and, to a lesser extent, the United States. Parra Palacios describes this scenario as “not very favorable for sustainability,” as local companies fear losing competitiveness in an increasingly demanding market.

On the other hand, Borja Pérez Planells believes that the resilience and adaptability of the European market will allow it to continue advancing its sustainability agenda, although he admits that Trump’s protectionist stance may introduce “some uncertainty at the global level.” However, he emphasizes Europe’s advantage in having “a well-defined energy policy and strong social support for the green transition,” elements that, in his view, will allow it to maintain its leadership in renewable energy.

Trump’s return generates a mix of challenges and opportunities for the renewable energy sector in Europe. On one hand, the lack of international cooperation and the protectionist approach of the U.S. could hinder the integration of clean technologies globally.

At the same time, experts like Pérez Planells emphasize that Europe’s commitment to sustainability remains strong and it has the capacity to adapt to new scenarios, even in a context of global competition. The uncertainty is palpable, but the European renewable energy sector appears determined to stay on course towards a green and resilient economy.