In a context marked by the transition toward a more sustainable energy model, energy retailers face new challenges and opportunities. Their role is no longer limited to buying and selling electricity; they must now adapt to an environment in which renewable energy , long-term contracts ( PPAs ), and the electrification of industrial demand are redefining the rules of the game.
Interest in renewables continues to grow
Decarbonization is now a common goal for most sectors. Companies, especially industrial ones , are promoting process electrification as a primary means of reducing their emissions. This electrification, accompanied by more flexible consumption, increases the complexity of energy supply and also the need for energy market forecasting .
Price forecasts are more important than ever
For marketers, anticipating market movements is key to offering competitive prices, ensuring sustainable margins, and designing products adapted to their customers’ changing needs. This anticipation is based on a vision structured across three time horizons, each associated with different types of decisions. In the short term, spanning hours and days, forecasting allows for optimizing purchases in the spot and intraday markets, adjusting positions, and reducing penalties for deviations. In the medium term, spanning weeks to months, forecasts facilitate tactical decision-making when hedging, adjusting indexed prices, and planning sales campaigns. Finally, in the long term, extending over several years, forecasts are essential for structuring PPA contracts, defining fixed prices for industrial clients, and evaluating strategic growth scenarios.
PPAs and long-term tariffs
Industrial customers are increasingly seeking predictability and stability in their energy costs. To meet this demand, energy suppliers must be able to offer well-founded long-term products. Market price forecasts for 10, 15, or even 25 years are essential for structuring viable, attractive, and bankable proposals.
Every spring, spot market prices tend to fall, which also impacts PPA prices, especially those associated with photovoltaic projects . In this context, battery hybridization offers a strategic opportunity for marketers, as it allows them to design delivery profiles more closely aligned with their customers’ actual consumption needs. This greater flexibility facilitates the creation of more competitive and customized contract structures, benefiting both consumers and renewable project developers.
Technology at the service of forecasting
Energy market forecasts have become an essential tool for energy marketers in an increasingly complex and competitive environment. The combined use of statistical models , artificial intelligence , machine learning , and fundamental models enables the generation of robust forecasts adapted to different time horizons and a wide variety of scenarios.
At AleaSoft , its AleaBlue division supports energy suppliers of all sizes with hourly price, demand, and renewable energy forecasts, which serve as the basis for daily operations, tactical planning, and strategic decision-making. In turn, the AleaGreen division provides essential long-term forecasts for structuring products such as fixed tariffs or PPA contracts, as well as for evaluating future investment and growth scenarios. For its part, AleaStorage offers specialized services in the analysis and optimization of energy storage , including revenue calculation, battery sizing , and evaluation of their profitability in different markets.
In an increasingly volatile market, forecasting is not an option; it’s the key to competing, building loyalty, and growing in an environment marked by the energy transition .
