The arrival of winter brings an increase in wind intensity, which boosts wind power generation potential in Spain, playing a crucial role in stabilizing prices amid geopolitical conflicts that drive up gas prices.

According to Roberto Cavero García, head of the Distribution and Energy Market area at ATRAE Foro de Energía, “This week, more wind should come in, so we’ll start generating more with wind power and prices will drop.”

This pattern, observed in past winters, offers hope in an energy context marked by uncertainty.

However, in an interview with Energía Estratégica España, the analyst warns of the possibility of gas supply cuts and emphasizes, “We will need to wait at least 15 or 20 days to see how things evolve.”

The average monthly price for January starts 15.24% lower than in December, marking a positive trend for 2025.

Source: Roberto Cavero García

According to Carlos Martín Graña, Head of Operations at Enerjoin, the reliance on combined cycle and other non-renewable sources directly impacted the average market price, which reached €111.24/MWh, the highest since February 2023.

“The balance between renewable and non-renewable technologies reflects the challenges and opportunities for the Spanish electricity system,” Graña explained in a recent analysis.

In this context, wind energy contributed 23.9%, maintaining its position as the leading renewable source, though with a slight decrease of 0.6% compared to November.

In contrast, the combined cycle increased its share by +3.5%, while hydropower saw a significant drop of -2.4%, due to adverse weather conditions.

Geopolitics and Market Volatility

The conflict in Ukraine and the gas crisis have exacerbated volatility in the energy market.

Graña describes the current situation as “the year we had to learn to live with maximum volatility, with differentials of over €100/MWh between hours of the same day.”

This context highlights the urgency for strategic planning that allows for maximizing the use of renewables, thus reducing reliance on fossil sources and the associated costs.

Wind energy, with a 23.9% contribution in December 2024, remains an essential pillar for stabilizing the Spanish electricity market.

According to Cavero García, “prices will continue to drop a little more, especially over the weekend,” thanks to higher wind intensity.

On the other hand, Graña emphasizes the need to “strengthen investments in renewable sources to counteract the increases in the use of fossil fuels.”

With 2025 expected to be a year of maximum volatility, the challenge will be to consolidate a balanced energy mix that combines sustainability, stability, and competitiveness.