The Spanish energy spot market faces a 2025 with dynamics similar to those of 2024. According to Roberto Cavero García, Head of Distribution and Energy Market at ATRAE Foro de Energía, prices could remain below €60/MWh in months like March and April, but would exceed €80/MWh starting in July.

“The projection indicates that 2025 will be very similar to 2024, with a slight increase in the annual price,” the analyst stated in an interview with Energía Estratégica España.

The outlook is not simple. Renewable energies have gained prominence, but gas continues to be a key piece in generation.

This resource contributed 26% of the energy mix in November, surpassing renewable sources like wind and hydro. This dependency not only impacts prices but also the market’s volatility due to fluctuations in gas and CO₂ costs.

Wind energy, which contributed up to 29% at key moments in 2023, has reduced its contribution to 26% in 2024.

According to Cavero, this slight decline reflects the natural variability of this source. Meanwhile, hydro energy, despite having water reserves above 51%, has not significantly increased its generation.

“The northern basins are somewhat emptier than a year ago, which could explain the lower impact of hydro in prices,” explains the ATRAE expert.

However, renewables as a whole accounted for 45% of the energy mix in November, still far from the 70% target for 2030 set by the 2030 Agenda.

Solar energy has shown significant growth, reaching 17.9% in June 2024, positioning it as a key player in the near future.

December started with record prices in the Spanish electricity market, with a monthly average of €135.76/MWh, one of the highest figures of the year.

In just five consecutive days, the price exceeded €105/MWh, placing four days in the TOP 10 of the highest prices in 2024.

In the last ten days, the daily average price reached €124/MWh, with 98% of the hours (235 out of 240 hours) above €100/MWh, reflecting the constant pressure on the electricity system.

Projections for Winter

Looking ahead to winter, no significant increase in energy demand is expected. “Current demand is lower than last year, with an approximate reduction of 10 GWh, and I don’t expect major changes except on specific days like Christmas,” Cavero specifies.

Self-consumption has significantly reduced the load on the grid, while electric vehicles, though growing, continue to represent a challenge at night due to their impact on peak consumption.

Despite high water reserves, the role of hydroelectricity will be crucial in containing prices, as happened in 2024.

Future projections suggest that the months of March, April, May, and June could bring lower prices, but they would rise again in the summer due to increased demand and costs associated with gas and CO₂.

Self-consumption and Batteries: A Boom Towards 2025

Self-consumption is transforming the Spanish energy landscape. Cavero highlights that more and more homes and businesses are opting to install photovoltaic systems with batteries, allowing them to store energy during the day for consumption during peak hours. “The self-consumption boom will come in 2025, with strong growth in battery installation,” he says.

At the industrial level, an increase in energy storage capacities is also projected, a necessary step to manage renewable generation and reduce dependence on gas. However, Cavero warns that the lack of hourly price differentiation in the spot market still limits the impact of these technologies.

Towards a More Balanced System

The progressive closure of nuclear power plants, scheduled to begin in 2025, presents an additional challenge.

“Closing nuclear plants requires solid renewable infrastructure near those plants, otherwise, the system will be more expensive and less stable,” Cavero warns.

Moreover, the administrative slowness and legal uncertainty in the installation of renewables in Spain remain significant barriers.

In summary, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of continuity for the energy spot market, with renewables gaining ground but not displacing gas as the main player.

Advances in batteries and self-consumption, along with greater investment in renewables, will be key to achieving energy transition goals and containing price volatility.