By mid-November 2024, Poland stands out in Europe for its rapid growth in the renewable energy sector. According to Grzegorz Wiśniewski, president of the Institute for Renewable Energy (IEO), the country has 4,026 photovoltaic projects with grid connection conditions, representing a total capacity of 19,097 MW. Additionally, 1,495 photovoltaic projects already have construction permits, totaling 12,359 MW, marking significant progress toward the energy transition.

Proyectos fotovoltaicos de acuerdo con los datos del Instituto de Energías Renovables (IEO).

In the wind sector, grid connection conditions have been issued for 101 projects, totaling a capacity of 2,677 MW, with 1,366 MW coming from onshore wind farms. This progress has not been hindered by regulatory barriers, such as the 10H Rule, which restricts the construction of projects within 700 meters of residential areas. Wiśniewski highlighted that despite these restrictions, permits have already been issued under the current regulations, demonstrating the resilience of the sector.

Proyectos eólicos de acuerdo con los datos del Instituto de Energías Renovables (IEO).

Innovation and the Prominence of Energy Storage

The development of photovoltaic energy is marked by the integration of energy storage. One in every ten photovoltaic projects has requested grid connection conditions that include batteries, totaling a capacity of 1.7 GW in storage. More than 80 photovoltaic projects, with a combined capacity of 9 GW, are optimizing costs through economies of scale and direct connection to the national electricity transmission system (PSE).

Key players in the photovoltaic sector include companies such as QAIR Polska, R.Power, and Lightsource Renewable Energy Poland, while in the wind sector, companies like PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna, OX2 Holding Poland, and Eurowind Energy are leading the efforts. These companies are not only facing challenges but also shaping the future of the energy transition in Poland.

The Importance of the December Auctions

The auctions scheduled for December 16 and 17 are a crucial milestone for the Polish renewable market. It is expected that 7 wind projects and 1,494 photovoltaic projects with construction permits will participate, of which 483 were issued in 2024. These auctions represent a key opportunity to secure long-term contracts and attract financing from banks and investment funds.

However, investors face significant challenges. The TGEbase index, which regulates settlements, is seen as unfavorable, as it makes it difficult to predict risks associated with profitability and possible surpluses if the energy price exceeds the auction price. Despite this, the auctions are viewed as a tool to generate stability in a market characterized by its volatility.

Wiśniewski pointed out that photovoltaic projects under 1 MW have twice the chance of success in these auctions compared to those with higher capacities. This underscores the need to adjust strategies to maximize competitiveness in technological categories.

Challenges with Grid Operators and Regulatory Inequality

The report presented by the Institute for Renewable Energy highlights tensions between project developers and distribution system operators (DSOs). The databases include a list of network connection denials, which reflect a failure on the part of DSOs to meet their obligation of public transparency. This inequality in the position of investors relative to grid operators is a critical issue that must be addressed to ensure a more balanced environment.

Path to 30 GW by 2030

Capacidad instalada de Polonia según los datos de Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A.

Poland’s progress in the renewable sector not only responds to local energy needs but also to its commitment to European decarbonization goals. One of the country’s objectives is to reach 30 GW of installed capacity in wind and solar energy by 2030, positioning itself as a regional leader in the energy transition.

The December auctions will serve as a benchmark to measure progress toward this goal. Although challenges remain, the sustained growth in photovoltaic and wind projects, combined with technological innovation and the prominence of the private sector, forecast a promising future for renewable energy in Poland.

Currently, the installed capacity in the national electricity system is significant, according to data from Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne S.A. The photovoltaic capacity reached 20,246 MW as of October 1, 2024, while onshore wind energy stood at 10,551 MW as of November 1, 2024.