Arturo Carranza, Energy Projects Director at Akza Advisors, warned that permitting, grid access and financial structure will be decisive in the evaluation process. Projects with the highest level of progress in these areas—such as those developed by AES Mexico, Atlas Renewable Energy, Invenergy and Cubico Sustainable Investments—are currently better positioned due to their regulatory maturity.
Mexico’s Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) is facing an unprecedented selection process following the submission of 222 completed projects totalling 37,749 MW from more than 80 developers.
This level of oversubscription reshapes traditional award criteria. The mixed-investment scheme aims to procure 7.5 GW, implying competitive pressure exceeding 580%.
“Considering the oversubscription received, a key factor in determining whether private-sector proposals are approved is related to permitting and construction approvals,” said Carranza in statements to Energía Estratégica.
“Projects that already hold permits can be built and enter operation more quickly, helping to meet the country’s energy needs,” he added.
An analysis of project maturity confirms a significant gap between advanced and early-stage initiatives. Out of the total submissions:
- 105 projects have environmental impact approval (MIA) or are in process (≈41%)
- 116 projects have social impact assessments (MISSE) underway (≈45.5%)
- 125 projects include grid interconnection studies (≈49%)
- 91 projects have none of these three elements (≈36%)
Projects that combine environmental feasibility, grid access and land availability significantly reduce uncertainty and shorten development timelines.
Within this group, companies such as AES Mexico, Atlas Renewable Energy, Invenergy, Gemex, Solarig and Cubico concentrate projects with varying degrees of progress, including some with approvals already granted or at advanced stages—placing them in a stronger position in the evaluation process.
Among the most advanced developments are:
- Atria Wind Farm II (259 MW) and Atria Wind Farm I (140 MW and 112 MW) by AES Mexico in Nuevo León, with conditional environmental approval and completed interconnection permits.
- Durango Solar Park (270 MW and 150 MW), also by AES Mexico, with full compliance in permitting, studies and land definition.
- México Lindo Solar PV I (65 MW) by Energía Aljaval in Coahuila.
- Vega Energy Project (58 MW) by Reden in Nuevo León.
Also notable are projects in northern Mexico with a high degree of maturity, including:
- Energéo Los Molinos (171 MW) – Thermion (Tamaulipas)
- Alaia II Solar (180 MW) – Grupo Simsa (Chihuahua)
- Solar PV projects by Solarig (72 MW) and Atlantica (200 MW)
The change in logic compared to previous frameworks is structural. Under the electricity auctions implemented after Mexico’s energy reform, price was the main award criterion.
However, this model was interrupted in 2019 with the cancellation of long-term auctions during the administration of former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, leaving the sector without competitive public tenders for several years and creating regulatory uncertainty.
This context largely explains the current “avalanche” of projects, as private capital once again finds a concrete opportunity to participate.
“Electricity auctions were designed to minimise electricity costs. In contrast, the mixed-investment scheme aims to expand generation capacity in the national power system as quickly as possible and at the lowest cost to the Mexican state,” Carranza explained.
In this new paradigm, project evaluation incorporates:
- Bankability (financial attractiveness and funding viability)
- Permitting status
- Grid reinforcement requirements
“These factors directly impact execution timelines and costs,” Carranza noted.
“Other important elements for assigning and approving proposals relate to how financially attractive the projects are and the extent of grid reinforcement works required for connection and operation.”
“The more reinforcement a project requires, the more expensive and less attractive it becomes from a financial standpoint,” he added.
Geography will also influence the outcome, particularly in terms of pricing and competitiveness.
According to Carranza’s analysis:
- Peninsular regions, such as Baja California and Yucatán, are likely to register higher prices
- North-east and north-west regions may offer more competitive conditions
“Ultimately, the approval of proposals will depend on permitting, bankability and grid reinforcement requirements,” he emphasised.
From a market design perspective, the call anticipates a distributed allocation across multiple players, capacities and technologies, avoiding excessive concentration.
This approach aligns with the need to diversify execution risks in a context where rapid and reliable capacity deployment is the priority.
“International developers can provide the technical and financial capacity required to execute these projects,” Carranza stated.
A significant share of participating companies are global players, including:
- Cox
- EDF
- Atlantica
- EDP
- Opdenergy
- Trina Solar
- BayWa r.e.
Their presence raises the competitive standard of the process.
The scale of the call may also impact labour and supply chains.
“Labour and supply markets are likely to adjust, making it more expensive to hire qualified talent and secure specialised inputs,” Carranza warned.
“Today, companies are once again showing interest in the sector. Although cautious, this interest is linked to an undeniable reality: the energy market remains highly attractive.”
Electricity sales—either to the regulated supplier or through private agreements such as power purchase agreements (PPAs)—continue to be a profitable and sustainable business in Mexico’s evolving energy sector.
