However, there remains a significant gap between political announcements and the actual plans and policies of countries. National plans and targets are expected to generate only half of the renewable energy growth needed by 2030. Investments in renewable energy, grids and flexibility, energy efficiency, and conservation must increase dramatically to meet the renewable energy and efficiency goals, totaling USD 31.5 trillion between 2024 and 2030.

There are also significant geographic disparities in terms of investments and renewable energy additions, leading to inequalities in the global energy transition. While investment in renewables has been rising overall, it remains concentrated in a few countries, leaving much of the Global South behind.

Moreover, with more than 70% of the energy supply, fossil fuels still dominate the energy mix in several of the largest economies and biggest CO2 emitters in the world. To meet the 1.5°C goal, the G20 must triple its installed renewable energy capacity by 2030, reaching 9,400 gigawatts (GW), and expand it sevenfold by 2050, to 24,900 GW, compared to 2023 levels.

Francesco La Camera, Director General de IRENA, stated: “We have reached a decisive moment. A strong global financial agreement and the upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025 are pivotal moments to keep the 1.5°C goal alive.

The NDCs 3.0 offer the last opportunity in this decade for countries to scale up their declared ambitions. In particular, an agreement on a new quantified target for climate finance at COP29 is critical to ensuring a just transition, supporting investments in the Global South, and empowering countries to increase their ambitions in terms of NDCs.

The 1.5°C goal depends on the efforts of G20 countries. Their NDCs must align with global commitments to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.”

In IRENA’s 1.5°C scenario, renewable energy sources would provide the majority of the energy mix, representing 68% and 91% of total electricity supply by 2030 and 2050, respectively.

By 2050, a deep transformation of energy and end-use sectors is required to enable the high proportions of renewable energy needed for the transition.

Globally, the expansion of renewable electricity will facilitate the transition away from fossil fuels in the energy sector. Fossil fuels will be significantly reduced from their current dominant share of 61% in the global energy mix to 24% in 2030 and 4% in 2050.

The transition from the current fossil fuel-based energy system to renewable energy requires stronger and more flexible power grids. This can be achieved through energy storage solutions, demand management, and sector-coupling technologies and strategies.

In particular, energy storage is a key technical factor that enables progress toward a fully decarbonized and 100% renewable energy system.

As countries prepare for the third round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025, it is crucial that they align better with national energy plans and net-zero emission targets.

IRENA is already working with 101 Parties to the Paris Agreement on updating and implementing NDCs. Coherent national energy and climate strategies facilitate transparency, attract investments, and accelerate the transition to a resilient, low-carbon economy.

International collaboration can ensure the significant increase in the financing needed for a just transition that maximizes socio-economic benefits. This could be facilitated through new sources of financing, such as the global wealth tax promoted by this year’s G20, which emphasizes equity and social or environmental responsibility.

Large amounts of public funding are also needed to reduce the risk of projects in high-risk countries and to finance crucial infrastructure. This funding could partly come from a reduction in fossil fuel subsidies.