Renewables could close the year with an almost 11% increase compared to their production from the previous year, according to estimates from Red Eléctrica.

These energies would exceed 149 TWh in 2024, marking their highest figure since records began. As in every year, Red Eléctrica provides early estimates of the main system metrics, which have been compiled based on preliminary data as of December 17.

These figures also forecast a record share of 56% for these technologies, about six percentage points higher than the 2023 figure, which was already a record.

Beatriz Corredor, president of Redeia, stated, “This milestone is a giant step toward the 81% target for 2030 and demonstrates that Spain is making solid progress in the transformation of its electricity system, an essential process in the fight against climate change, to gain strategic autonomy and reduce energy prices.”

In addition to the strong increase in the overall renewable energy sector, 2024 stands out once again for wind energy’s leadership in the mix: this source is expected to end the year with a 23% share of the generation structure. Following wind is nuclear, maintaining second place with a 19% contribution.

One of the key highlights of the year would be solar photovoltaic, which is set to take third place with 17%, generating a record approximately 45 TWh. This increase would push combined cycle down to fourth place. Hydropower will round out the top positions in the ranking, in fifth place with 13%.

Fossil technologies (combined cycle and coal) are experiencing a notable decline in production in 2024. Both are registering a 24% drop. Coal continues its path toward disappearing from the generation structure, responsible for just 1.1% of the electricity generated this year, the lowest share and production in its history.

Red Eléctrica’s forecasts suggest that this combination of increased renewable production alongside the decrease in fossil fuel-based generation would allow Spain to finish the year with a nearly 77% share of emissions-free production.

Additionally, 2024 will become the year with the lowest CO2 equivalent emissions from electricity production, reaching 27 million tons of CO2 equivalent, a decrease of more than 16.4% compared to 2023, which was already a historic low.

Renewable transformation in the country is already a reality, significantly driven in 2024 by the increase in installed renewable capacity, which now accounts for 64% of Spain’s total generating capacity, as well as favorable weather conditions.

The renewable generation management model has also been key, allowing its active participation in the electricity system’s services through Red Eléctrica’s Renewable Energy Control Center (Cecre), which this year integrated more than 98% of renewable production at the peninsula level, a value far higher than that of surrounding European countries.

Export Balance and Demand

According to Red Eléctrica’s estimates, 2024 will be the third consecutive year that the Spanish electricity system closes with an export balance of around 10 TWh from international exchanges.

Another metric forecasted by Red Eléctrica is electricity demand, which is expected to see a slight 1% increase compared to the previous year, reaching approximately 248 TWh. After correcting for the effects of labor patterns and temperatures, the increase amounts to 1.6% compared to 2023.

Demand variations in 2024 have been very similar in the Balearic and Canary Islands. In both, gross demand is 0.6% higher than in the previous year. Once labor and temperature effects are corrected, the increase in the Balearic Islands is 1.2%, and in the Canary Islands, it is 0.9%.

The highest demand recorded in the Spanish peninsula’s electricity system in 2024 occurred this winter, specifically on January 9 at 20:56 hours, with a peak of 38,272 MW.