Terna’s monthly report on the Italian electricity system reveals a decline in renewable energy generation in January 2025, with a 4.6% reduction compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, renewable capacity in operation increased by 421 MW, but this represents a decrease of 266 MW compared to the same period of the previous year, translating to 39% less growth.

From this total, photovoltaic capacity increased by 419 MW. In the same period of 2024, the growth was 656 MW, registering a reduction of 237 MW (-36%). Meanwhile, wind power capacity in operation increased by only 2 MW. In the same period of 2024, the increase had been 32 MW, meaning a reduction of 30 MW (-95%).

Decline in Renewable Production and Increase in Thermal Energy Sources

During January, renewable energy production reached 8,594 GWh, compared to 9,008 GWh in the previous year. This decline was mainly driven by a drop in wind (-8.7%), hydroelectric (-5.1%), and photovoltaic (-0.5%) production.

Terna’s data shows that solar photovoltaic energy production decreased by 0.5% compared to January 2024, reaching 1,528 GWh. Meanwhile, wind power production was 2,568 GWh, representing an 8.7% decrease compared to the previous year.

In contrast, thermoelectric generation increased by 11.5%, reaching 14,713 GWh. This translates into greater dependence on fossil fuels to meet the country’s electricity demand.

“The lower wind and hydroelectric production has forced an increase in thermal generation to ensure electricity supply,” states Terna’s report. This shift in the energy matrix has implications for CO₂ emissions, as thermoelectric production still relies heavily on natural gas and coal.

Impact on the Electricity Market and Energy Prices

The lower contribution of renewables has significantly impacted the electricity market. The cost of electricity in the wholesale market (MGP) reached €3.6 billion in January 2025, representing a 47% year-on-year increase.

Additionally, the price difference between supply and demand in the dispatch services market (MSD) reached €114/MWh, a 33% increase compared to January 2024. This rise is due to the greater need for thermal sources to compensate for lower renewable production, making electricity more expensive.

“The dependence on thermal sources during peak demand periods raises wholesale market costs and reduces the competitiveness of renewable electricity,” highlights the report.

Geographical Distribution: Which Regions Lead Renewable Energy Production?

The Terna report reveals that, despite the growth in installed renewable capacity in some regions, effective production has decreased in several areas of the country. In January 2025, renewable energy generation was concentrated primarily in Lombardy, Tuscany, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, and Campania.

In northern Italy, Lombardy produced 5,882 GWh, positioning itself as the country’s leading electricity producer. In central Italy, Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany reached a combined production of 4,136 GWh, while Veneto contributed 4,123 GWh.

In the case of Lazio, Umbria, Abruzzo, Molise, and Marche, total production amounted to 3,709 GWh.

The southern regions showed mixed results. The area comprising Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, and Calabria produced 3,868 GWh, registering a 0.7% increase. Meanwhile, the island of Sicily generated 1,637 GWh, and in Sardinia, production reached 718 GWh in January 2025.

In terms of installed capacity, Lazio led renewable energy growth in January 2025, with an increase of 85 MW, followed by Lombardy (+40 MW) and Emilia-Romagna (+31 MW).

However, the increase in installed capacity did not translate into higher electricity generation, reinforcing the hypothesis that climatic conditions played a crucial role in the decline of renewable energy production.

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