However, its continuation is uncertain and has an adverse effect on investments in a key sector for the energy transition, as warned by industry leaders.

“Looking ahead, the potential extension of the tax presents a worrying scenario for companies in the sector and their investors,” highlights Jon Belda Sánchez, a broker specializing in guarantees for the public sector.

In an interview with Energía Estratégica España, he explains that the market perceives the tax as a measure that could “reduce investment flows and economic solvency,” affecting smaller companies by polarizing competition in favor of those with stronger financial backing.

Some energy companies have chosen to intensify their expansion strategies in international markets in response to regulatory and fiscal uncertainty in Spain, as announced recently by the CEO of Repsol.

“Companies cannot afford the risk of an unpredictable tax burden that limits their profit margins,” says the advisor.

Performance of Major Energy Companies

Energy stocks have been highlighted in recent quarters due to strong financial results.

• Endesa has experienced a 14.88% increase in the last six months, reaching a value of €19.69.
• Naturgy presents a less favorable balance, with a 12.14% loss in the past year, standing at €23.30. Despite this drop, it remains positive in the short term with a marginal increase of 0.34% in recent weeks.
• Iberdrola, in contrast, reported a remarkable growth of 34.63% in the past year, consolidating its value at €14.02 and demonstrating the appeal of renewables and its focus on sustainability.
• Siemens Energy AG reflects the strong growth of clean energy, with an impressive 360.73% increase in one year, reaching €37.78 per share.
• Audax Renovables, also driven by the renewable energy boom, recorded a 65.74% growth in the past year, reaching €1.79 per share.

However, uncertainty regarding the tax has caused some instability in the stock market, creating an environment in which investors are cautious about potential government announcements.

“In the end, scenarios are being created that do not inspire investment in renewable energy, when, on their own, energy companies are rising stocks,” says Belda.

In his view, the permanence of this tax “would reduce investment flows and could consolidate larger companies, while those without sufficient capital could face sale or absorption.”

A Permanent Tax?

Since its implementation, the tax has had moderate backing from certain sectors, although the Chamber of Spain has opposed its permanence, labeling the measure as harmful to the investment climate and job generation.

The government, lacking sufficient support to make it a permanent measure, has opted to keep it under evaluation, while companies adjust their financial plans and dividend strategies to absorb its possible continuation.

The possibility of an extension of the tax, according to Belda, “could polarize the market,” favoring large companies with strong financial capacity that could absorb the impact on their profit margins.

In contrast, smaller companies, without the same financial muscle, would struggle to keep up, especially in their investments in renewable energy and storage, two areas that today are seen as the pillars for sector growth and market stability.

For now, fiscal policy and the evolution of energy prices will continue to be determining factors for the sector’s performance on the stock market.

The uncertainty created by this tax, combined with a growing demand for and expansion of clean energy, exposes companies to financial adjustments in their long-term plans, especially in dividend distribution and renewable investment planning.

“With the consolidation of storage technologies and the expansion of clean energy, the sector is seen as a safe value in the market,” says the broker.

However, given the fiscal challenges, “commitment to sustainability must be accompanied by a stable regulatory environment that allows continued investment in renewables and, above all, in new technologies that strengthen the sector.”

Regulatory uncertainty, thus, poses a challenge for energy companies that, despite being rising stocks with good dividends, require a secure fiscal environment to continue advancing the energy transition and make a sustained contribution to emission reduction and the shift to cleaner energies.