The European energy market has been experiencing price volatility since the beginning of the year. One of the most notable trends in 2024 has been the increase in the number of hours with low or negative prices.

In this context, Greece has shown variable trends in energy prices, with the lowest rates recorded in April, averaging 60.11 €/MWh, a month in which negative prices were first recorded in the Spanish market, and the highest prices in July at 135.1 €/MWh.

During the first twenty days of October, the average energy price in Greece was 83.8 €/MWh, with hourly values fluctuating between 0.04 €/MWh and 268.9 €/MWh, according to Antonio Delgado Rigal, CEO of Aleasoft, in an interview with Energía Estratégica España.

“On a monthly basis, prices in 2024, although lower compared to those recorded during the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are still higher than the levels prior to the crisis. On an hourly basis, negative, zero, or near-zero prices have been recorded, and the number of hours with low prices has increased compared to previous years,” says Delgado Rigal.

He further notes that in all of 2024, up until October 18, 2.9% of the hours registered prices equal to or lower than 1 €/MWh, whereas “between 2014 and 2023, this percentage did not exceed 0.8%.”

In 2024, 11 hours were recorded with negative prices. The lowest price was -1.02 €/MWh, reached on Sunday, April 28, at 10:00, a month in which the lowest energy prices were registered in Spain.

Outlook and Measures

Delgado Rigal points out that energy prices in Greece are expected to rise in the upcoming winter months, but to remain below those of the energy crisis.

AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that, during the fourth week of October, prices could continue to rise in most European electricity markets, influenced by the drop in wind power production and the increase in demand in most markets.

Additionally, he emphasizes that the Greek market still has a “high dependence on gas” for electricity generation, meaning that electricity market prices are influenced by the evolution of gas prices.

Greece is taking measures to stabilize energy prices, focusing on the expansion of renewable energies, energy storage development, and improvements to electrical infrastructure, as explained by the Aleasoft representative.

“The country has accelerated the integration of renewable sources, such as solar and wind, and is promoting storage technologies to balance supply and demand, avoiding price spikes. Additionally, it is strengthening interconnections with other countries and promoting energy efficiency through incentives, reducing pressure on demand,” he points out.

“Renewable generation has a depressing effect on electricity market prices. In recent years, solar energy has experienced significant growth, surpassing wind power in installed capacity. This increase in solar generation is reflected in market prices, where the lowest values are mostly concentrated during hours of highest solar radiation,” he adds.

Regarding demand, he notes that there has been a decrease in the last two years, with 2023 being the year with the lowest demand since 2015.

“Between February and May 2024, demand remained at levels similar to those of the same months of the previous year, while in the rest of the year it was higher. Notably, in July 2024, the highest monthly demand since 2015 was recorded, coinciding with the highest average temperatures since August 2012,” analyzes Delgado Rigal.