As week 13 marked the final full trading week before the main 2024 disclosure deadline, some activity returned to the spot contracts, driven by last-minute position covering, while volatility intensified. According to a Veyt’s Guarantees of Origin market note from Irina Peltegova, Senior Analyst Renewable Power Certificates:

The Nordic Hydro 2024 experienced sporadic transactions as low as EUR 0.09/MWh, although Veyt closing prices remained relatively stable at around EUR 0.20/MWh.

Similarly, futures contracts briefly fell below EUR 1/MWh by week’s end, but regained some ground, with the 2026 vintage stabilizing at around EUR 1/MWh. The 2027 and 2028 contracts continued in contango at EUR 1.15/MWh and EUR 1.20/MWh respectively.

The 2025 vintage held steady at around EUR 0.66/MWh throughout the week. 

The pullback in forward vintages suggests that market participants may be adopting a wait-and-see approach as they reassess the impact of the 2024 cumulative market balance on future vintages.

In addition, the Commission’s stop-the-clock proposal for the roll out of the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) to cover more companies seems to have added uncertainty to the market.

Interest in the 2025 vintage is likely to increase in the coming weeks as large volumes are expected to enter the market through GO auctions.

The end of the disclosure period will also shed light on consumption patterns, with final 2024 demand data emerging.

If 2024 demand growth exceeds market expectations, prices may follow a more consistent bullish trend.

This potential trend could also be supported by continued underperformance in renewable production.

From 1 January to 27 March 2025, renewable generation in the AIB was around 47 TWh lower year-on-year, due to weaker wind and hydro generation. Solar generation saw a modest increase of 1.5 TWh in the same period.   

The cumulative balance of EECS GOs from renewable sources is expected to decrease by 9 TWh to 155 TWh following the 2024 disclosure deadline, driven by a relatively high number of expired GOs. Regulatory incentives and low prices are expected to lead to strong growth in cancellations.