Although in the first 11 months of 2024, once all variables are considered, demand has increased by 1.4% compared to the same period last year, this is well below the 6% annual growth expected until 2030 to avoid “cannibalizing” the renewable target of the PNIEC.

However, a captive demand for access to the electrical grid, estimated at 14 GW, is keeping key projects on hold. This is confirmed by Pedro González General Manager of AEGEwho details that this figure may be even higher due to issues in planning and managing requests.

“The electrical grid is not able to respond to current requests, many of which have been stalled for years,” he states in an interview with Energía Estratégica España.

Spain has 170 GW of contracted capacity on the grid, while new requests amount to an additional 50 GW, representing a 30% increase over the past two years, according to figures shared by the executive.

However, not all of this capacity is real, as many projects are requesting access at multiple points, generating artificial demand by not defining the locations of their facilities.

This phenomenon, combined with the fact that connection permits can remain valid for five years without execution, exacerbates grid congestion.

Both storage and hydrogen also play a controversial role in these figures.

For both, the current regulatory development and economic model do not allow for effective integration, so they also represent a significant portion of this captive demand.

It is worth clarifying that 7 GW have been requested for batteries from Red Eléctrica, and the storage sector is working to ensure that they do not directly compete with demand capacity and are treated differently.

Therefore, it is expected that the new regulations will interpret batteries as allies to the grid that will only demand energy during peak generation periods, if available, and inject energy when necessary to ensure supply stability.

Industries affected and decarbonization challenges

Among the most affected industries is the glass sector, which seeks to replace its gas furnaces with electric ones to reduce emissions by 90%. However, the response has been negative due to lack of grid capacity.

“Projects that would allow decarbonizing key production processes are being delayed,” emphasizes González, adding that other sectors such as data centers, electric vehicle component factories, and alternative fuel projects are also facing uncertainty and delays.

How to reverse the situation?

For the General Manager of the Association of Companies with High Energy Consumption, the key lies in organizing and prioritizing the projects that request access to the grid.

He proposes establishing compliance milestones to ensure the viability and execution of projects within a reasonable timeframe.

“It must be demonstrated that there is a real project behind each request, and eliminate those without a solid foundation,” he states.

Additionally, he insists on the need to strengthen electrical infrastructure, especially in strategic nodes.

Better management would not only facilitate industrial electrification but also balance energy demand with installed renewable capacity, improving prices and ensuring Spain’s competitiveness in Europe.

A competitive and sustainable future

Spain has the potential to be a leader in energy competitiveness in Europe due to its renewable mix.

However, “the lack of effective policies in industrial costs is slowing down the transition,” warns González, stressing that solving these bottlenecks and adjusting electricity prices is essential to attract investment and ensure the sustainability of renewables.