In September, the European Commission unveiled the 19th package of sanctions against Russia, which includes a ban on importing LNG from 1 January 2027. The measure is part of the strategy to reduce the EU’s energy dependence and increase economic pressure on Moscow amid the war in Ukraine.

The proposal must still be approved unanimously by all 27 Member States, which signals potentially complex negotiations. Countries such as Hungary and Slovakia have expressed resistance to tougher sanctions, which could delay the decision. Spain and France are among the most affected countries, as they continue to import a significant share of Russian LNG.

The initiative falls under REPowerEU, the European plan launched in 2022 that focuses on three pillars: energy savings, supplier diversification, and an accelerated roll-out of renewables. Since the start of the war, pipeline gas imports from Russia have plummeted, but LNG purchases have continued, accounting for roughly 15% of Europe’s supply in 2024.

Alejandro Diego Rosell, energy consultant, told Strategic Energy Europe that the decision may be insufficient to alter Moscow’s behaviour:

“We are moving too slowly. The proposal is not binding until approved, and Hungary or Slovakia are acting as saboteurs. The contract applies only to LNG and, if the aim is to pressure Russia, it will have plenty of time to diversify.”

Rosell pointed out that Spain and France are among the most exposed to the cut, meaning accelerating the energy transition will be essential:

“Without tougher secondary sanctions, it is fairly easy for Russia to circumvent the measures and continue exporting. Better this than nothing, but still not enough to make the Kremlin react.”

The analyst also welcomed the introduction of a price adjustment mechanism for Urals crude imports but considered it “an extra turn of the screw with limited efficiency.”

Implications for the energy sector

The measure could accelerate investment in renewables, storage and electricity grids to offset the loss of Russian LNG. Spain, in its updated PNIEC, has pledged to reach 81% renewable electricity generation by 2030, a target that could be revised upwards.

The think tank Ember highlights that renewables have already avoided €59 billion in fossil fuel imports since 2019 and that solar has overtaken coal in EU power generation. These figures support the strategy of replacing gas imports with a greater roll-out of renewables and grid flexibility.

Nonetheless, analysts warn that without a rapid deployment of storage and demand-side management, the import ban could strain the system during winter peaks.

Political outlook

Negotiations on the sanctions package could be prolonged in the European Council. The unanimity requirement means the positions of Hungary, Slovakia, and other Russian LNG-dependent countries will be decisive. The coming months are likely to see intense lobbying from governments and energy companies to mitigate impacts and secure alternative supply sources.

In parallel, Brussels insists that this move sends a clear signal that the EU will continue to reduce its dependence on Russian fossil fuels and speed up the energy transition.